Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com, who is widely regarded as one of the top political pollsters in the country, has released a new model that shows Trump shellacking Hillary Clinton, with the projected chance of victory for Trump standing at a margin of 13.4 points.
In terms of raw electoral college votes, Silver’s map shows Trump finishing with 283 electoral college votes to Clinton’2 253, if the election were held today. A candidate needs 270 electoral college votes to win. Trump also wins key swing states like Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Clinton’s only swing state wins are Colorado and Virginia, according to FiveThirtyEight’s projections.
Silver’s projection comes at a particularly bad time for Clinton, as Monday marks the first day of the Democratic National Convention, and establishment Democrats are still desperately pleading with Bernie Sanders’ army of delegates and protesters for party unity.
The poll marks the first time FiveThirtyEight has projected the Republican nominee will beat the presumptive Democratic nominee. Clinton’s favorability has slowly evaporated over time, while Trump is benefitting from a post-convention bump in the polls.
However, when leaving out polls taken immediately after the Republican National Convention, Clinton beats Trump by 7 points. Clinton gets an additional 11-point boost when factoring in economic and historical data, according to Silver’s models.
Clinton has a steep hill to climb at this week’s Democratic National Convention. The DNC begins on the heels of a crippling scandal showing top Democratic Party officials openly mocking Bernie Sanders while devising plans to secure the nomination for Clinton behind the scenes.
In a June poll cited by Bloomberg, roughly half of Sanders’ supporters did not intend to vote for Clinton in November.